Win rate63%N=8
VRSKTarget: $210.14+$29.57+16.4%
Pre-fall-14.3%Target+16.4%Volhighest 99%
A bull pennant is a short breather after a stock runs higher. Here's how to recognize the shape, where a rule-based trade would enter and exit, and what TradingPal's historical test found—including the losses.
74 formed in the last 45 days, caught by our screener.
A bull pennant (also called a bullish pennant) is a pause that forms right after a stock makes a strong, fast move higher. The price stops climbing and drifts sideways in smaller and smaller swings, so the highs and lows squeeze toward each other into a little triangle shape — like a small flag, or pennant, flying at the top of a flagpole.
One way traders interpret the shape is that the first rally paused rather than ended. That is a story, not proof; the historical result below measures what happened when the same trigger and exit rules were applied repeatedly.
You'll see the same shape called a pennant pattern, a bullish pennant flag, or a bull flag pennant — the names blur together. What matters is the two ingredients: a strong pole up, then a tight squeeze.
Checking a chart by hand? Look for all four of these:
Traders often look for volume (shares changing hands) to quiet inside the pennant and expand on the break. Treat that as context, not confirmation by itself; TradingPal's test follows the defined price trigger.
We don't quote textbook folklore—we run the pattern over years of daily price history for hundreds of stocks, simulate the declared entry and exit rules, and count what happened. The numbers below are served from the latest completed published artifact. See how TradingPal backtests patterns for the full method and its confirmation limitation.
Read the win rate beside average R, profit factor, and sample size. No win-rate band is automatically “strong,” and 50% is not automatically random or break-even. The measured size of wins and losses decides whether that hit rate paid. The track-record metrics guide explains how those numbers fit together.
Historical results of the simulated strategy described above (1986-11-26 – 2026-06-08), refreshed nightly — not a prediction. How we test →
Our screener re-draws the lines on 500+ stocks every night and flags each one whose chart currently fits the checklist above. Here's what it found in its latest scan.
74 fresh bullish pennants formed in the last 45 days across our growing universe of 600+ scanned tickers (574 charts tracked for this pattern in total). Scan updated Jul 2, 2026.
One real bullish pennant — detected on VRSK.
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74 matching setupsin this guide's latest scan.
The stocks with the strongest historical hit rate for this pattern in our backtest (minimum sample applied).
| Stock | Win rate | Avg return | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|
| DGDollar General | 100.0% | +1.36R | 9 |
| HCAHca Holdings | 90.0% | +1.23R | 10 |
| BXBlackstone | 88.9% | +1.32R | 18 |
| TSLATesla | 88.2% | +1.44R | 17 |
| PDDPinduoduo | 87.5% | +1.57R | 8 |
| MPCMarathon Petroleum | 87.5% | +0.78R | 8 |
| FISVFiserv | 86.2% | +0.99R | 29 |
| WDAYWorkday | 84.6% | +0.94R | 13 |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks | 84.6% | +1.27R | 13 |
| NXPINxp Semiconductors Nv | 84.6% | +0.73R | 13 |
Everything below comes from rules we've tested on thousands of historical trades — not folklore. Tap through the three steps to see each one on the chart. If entry, stop, target, or R is new to you, start with risk/reward and R-multiples.
After the detector could establish the pennant on the prior bar, the simulation rests an order at the confirmed trigger—the upper boundary plus its required threshold. It fills on the first eligible bar that reaches that level; if the stock gaps above it, the fill is the worse opening price. In an A/B across roughly 54,000 trades, this confirmed-level first-poke and breakout-close entry both won about 53% of the time, while the first-poke produced roughly 28% more total R.
Right before the breakout, the price makes one final small dip (traders call it the “swing low”). That level defines the planned invalidation. The test exits at the close of a later bar that closes beyond it, so an overshoot or gap can lose more than the planned 1R. Every win-rate number on this page assumes that same exit rule.
Measure the pennant's own height, tallest point to lowest, and project that distance up from the breakout — that's the natural first target (the “measured move”). But here's what our testing found for bull pennants specifically: when the target hits, the move often keeps going. Staying in as long as the price holds above its average of the last 10 days (the “10-day moving average”) — and only selling when a day finally closes below it — made more money than selling at the target.
Set your order at the line in advance — you're in the moment price pushes through, not at the day's much higher close.
A pennant takes its name from the move that came before it. After a strong run up, it's a bull pennant; after a steep drop, the same shape is a bear pennant. The historical lean is not a promise about the next break.
“Usually” is the honest word. In our own testing (the numbers above), bull pennants follow through more often than not — but a meaningful share of them fail. That's not a flaw in the pattern; it's why the trade comes with a pre-decided exit if it goes wrong.
The honest way to judge a pattern is to watch completed examples — winners and losers. These are real, recent bull-pennant trades from our nightly test, each linked to that stock's live chart.
These three get mixed up constantly, and honestly, they trade almost the same way. The difference is the shape of the pause.
The pause drifts gently downward between two parallel lines—a small tilted rectangle—instead of squeezing to a point. Same pole, same bullish lean.
The ceiling is flat (the same price keeps rejecting it) while the floor rises. It doesn't need a pole, and it builds over weeks rather than days.
The same squeezing shape as a pennant but bigger and slower, and without needing the sharp pole in front. The shape alone does not choose a side, so the tested trade waits for the confirmed trigger.
A bear pennant is a short breather after a stock falls hard.
An ascending triangle forms when a stock keeps meeting the same ceiling while each dip stops a little higher.
A symmetrical triangle is a stock coiling tighter and tighter — lower highs and higher lows squeezing toward a point — with neither buyers nor sellers in charge.
Educational content, not investment advice. Backtest statistics are historical results of a simulated strategy, refreshed nightly — they describe the past, not the next trade.