Win rate62%N=29
EOGTarget: $141.97+$10.34+7.9%
Pre-fall+3.6%Target+7.9%Volhigh 68%
A falling wedge looks weak at first—the price is still sliding—but each push down is losing ground. Here's how to recognize the squeeze, build a rule-based trade, and read what TradingPal's historical test found.
83 formed in the last 45 days, caught by our screener.
A falling wedge is a decline that's running out of energy. The price is still making lower highs and lower lows, but each leg down travels less than the one before it — so both boundary lines slope down and squeeze together, like a funnel tilted downhill. The trend line basics guide explains how those boundaries are anchored.
One way traders interpret the narrowing is that downward momentum is weakening. That story explains the bullish lean; it does not prove a bounce. The historical test below measures what happened only after a confirmed trigger.
You'll find it either as a pause inside a bigger rise (the healthiest kind — a pullback that keeps shrinking) or at the tail end of a long decline, where it can mark the turn (a “reversal”).
Checking a chart by hand? All four of these need to be true:
The classic mistake is confusing a falling channel with a falling wedge. If the two lines run parallel—the price simply slides down a corridor—nothing is being squeezed. The wedge needs the pinch.
We run the falling wedge over years of daily history for hundreds of stocks, simulate the declared entry and exit rules, and publish what happened—winners, losers, and the average result. The numbers are served from the latest completed published artifact. See how TradingPal backtests patterns for the full method and its confirmation limitation.
A single wedge proves nothing; the repeated result is what matters. Read the numbers across many trades, including stop exits that overshot planned risk. The track-record metrics guide shows what to read beside win rate.
Historical results of the simulated strategy described above (1986-12-19 – 2026-06-10), refreshed nightly — not a prediction. How we test →
Our screener re-draws these lines on 500+ stocks every night and flags each chart that fits the checklist above. Here's what its latest scan found.
83 fresh falling wedges formed in the last 45 days across our growing universe of 600+ scanned tickers (569 charts tracked for this pattern in total). Scan updated Jul 2, 2026.
One real falling wedge — detected on EOG.
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83 matching setupsin this guide's latest scan.
The stocks with the strongest historical hit rate for this pattern in our backtest (minimum sample applied).
| Stock | Win rate | Avg return | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|
| APTVAptiv | 88.9% | +0.71R | 9 |
| KIMKimco Realty | 82.9% | +0.97R | 35 |
| KHCKraft Heinz | 80.0% | +0.82R | 10 |
| HSICHenry Schein | 80.0% | +1.31R | 25 |
| AIZAssurant | 80.0% | +1.08R | 15 |
| AEEAmeren | 78.9% | +1.70R | 20 |
| NRGNrg Energy | 78.6% | +0.81R | 15 |
| CRMSalesforce.com | 78.6% | +1.20R | 14 |
| IRMIron Mountain | 78.3% | +0.92R | 23 |
| GLWCorning | 77.4% | +0.72R | 31 |
Everything below comes from rules we've tested on thousands of historical trades. Tap through the three steps to see each one drawn on the chart. For a quick primer on entry, stop, target, and R, read risk/reward and R-multiples.
After the detector could establish the wedge on the prior bar, the simulation rests an order at the confirmed trigger—the upper boundary plus its required threshold. It fills on the first eligible bar that reaches that level; a gap above it fills at the worse opening price. In an A/B across roughly 54,000 trades, this confirmed-level first-poke and breakout-close entry both won about 53% of the time, while the first-poke produced roughly 28% more total R.
Right before the breakout, the price puts in one final low (the “swing low”). That level defines the planned invalidation. The test exits at the close of a later bar that closes beyond it, so an overshoot or gap can lose more than the planned 1R. Every per-trade result on this page uses that same rule.
Measure the wedge's height at its widest point and project that distance up from the trigger. That is the measured-move target. The current bullish policy does not automatically sell there: after the target is reached, it trails the 10-day average and exits on a later close below it. In the recorded comparison, that ride rule produced more total R for bullish wedges than capping every trade at the target.
Set your order at the line in advance — you're in the moment price pushes through, not at the day's much higher close.
Bullish-leaning. Traders often read the narrowing decline as fading downward momentum, but that is an interpretation, not proof. The latest completed record above shows how often the tested upside rule followed through.
Some falling wedges break down instead. That cancels the bullish trade plan; it does not reveal anyone's motives. The safety exit below defines how the tested rule handles the failed case.
Completed falling-wedge trades from our nightly test — wins and losses, real dates, real results. Each links to that stock's live chart.
Wedges tilt; triangles don't. That one detail changes the lean of each pattern:
The mirror image: both lines slope up while the climb keeps shrinking. It has a bearish historical lean.
Also points down, but its floor is flat—the same area catches each drop. In a falling wedge both lines fall; the flat floor is what makes the triangle its own bearish-leaning shape.
A tiny, fast squeeze that only counts right after a sharp run up. A falling wedge is bigger, slower, and forms while the price is falling.
A rising wedge can look healthy because price is still climbing, but each push up is losing ground.
A descending triangle forms when a stock keeps landing on the same floor while each bounce fades sooner.
A bull pennant is a short breather after a stock runs higher.
Educational content, not investment advice. Backtest statistics are historical results of a simulated strategy, refreshed nightly — they describe the past, not the next trade.