Win rate54%N=37
LOWTarget: $202.34-$15.58-7.2%
Lead-in rally-1.6%Target-7.2%Volmid 46%
A rising wedge can look healthy because price is still climbing, but each push up is losing ground. Here's how to recognize the squeeze, protect shares you own, and read what TradingPal's historical test found.
56 formed in the last 45 days, caught by our screener.
A rising wedge is a climb that's running out of energy. The price is still making higher highs and higher lows, but each push up travels less than the one before it — so both boundary lines slope up and squeeze together, like a funnel tilted uphill. The trend line basics guide explains how those boundaries are anchored.
One way traders interpret the narrowing is that upward momentum is weakening. That story explains the bearish lean; it does not prove a drop. The historical test below measures what happened only after a confirmed trigger.
You'll find it in two places: a rising wedge in an uptrend, where a long rally grinds into one final, narrowing push (a topping pattern), or as a slow-motion bounce inside a bigger decline, where it usually marks the spot the fall resumes.
Checking a chart by hand? All four of these need to be true:
The classic mistake is confusing a rising channel with a rising wedge. If the two lines run parallel—the price simply climbs a steady corridor—nothing is being squeezed. The wedge needs the pinch.
We run the rising wedge over years of daily history for hundreds of stocks, simulate the declared entry and exit rules, and publish what happened—winners, losers, and the average result. The numbers are served from the latest completed published artifact. See how TradingPal backtests patterns for the full method and its confirmation limitation.
A single wedge proves nothing; the repeated result is what matters. Read the numbers across many trades, including stop exits that overshot planned risk. The track-record metrics guide shows what to read beside win rate.
Historical results of the simulated strategy described above (1986-12-18 – 2026-06-11), refreshed nightly — not a prediction. How we test →
Our screener re-draws these lines on 500+ stocks every night and flags each chart that fits the checklist above. Here's what its latest scan found.
56 fresh rising wedges formed in the last 45 days across our growing universe of 600+ scanned tickers (570 charts tracked for this pattern in total). Scan updated Jul 2, 2026.
One real rising wedge — detected on LOW.
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56 matching setupsin this guide's latest scan.
The stocks with the strongest historical hit rate for this pattern in our backtest (minimum sample applied).
| Stock | Win rate | Avg return | Trades |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOECboe Global Markets | 88.9% | +1.28R | 9 |
| CHTRCharter Communications | 85.7% | +1.80R | 14 |
| MRVLMarvell Technology | 81.3% | +1.21R | 16 |
| DGDollar General | 80.0% | +0.65R | 10 |
| OTISOtis Worldwide | 77.8% | +1.08R | 9 |
| FIXComfort Systems | 77.8% | +0.73R | 18 |
| CFCf Industries Holdings | 77.8% | +1.24R | 18 |
| ZSZscaler | 75.0% | +1.17R | 8 |
| CCEPCoca-Cola European Partners | 74.3% | +0.87R | 35 |
| CTSHCognizant Technology Solutions | 74.2% | +1.18R | 31 |
First, what the breakdown is for. If you own the stock, a rising wedge breaking its lower trigger is a warning that the run may be rolling over—a cue to review risk or step aside. Traders can also take a bearish position by shorting. The three numbers below describe the same plan.
Everything here comes from rules we've tested on thousands of historical trades. Tap through the three steps to see each one drawn on the chart. For a quick primer on entry, stop, target, and R, read risk/reward and R-multiples.
After the detector could establish the wedge on the prior bar, the simulation rests an order at the confirmed trigger—the lower boundary minus its required threshold. It fills on the first eligible bar that reaches that level; a gap below it fills at the worse opening price. In an A/B across roughly 54,000 trades, this confirmed-level first-poke and breakout-close entry both won about 53% of the time, while the first-poke produced roughly 28% more total R.
Right before the breakdown, the price puts in one final small bounce (traders call it the “swing high”). That level defines the planned invalidation. The test exits at the close of a later bar that closes beyond it, so an overshoot or gap can lose more than the planned 1R. Every per-trade result on this page uses that same rule.
Measure the wedge's height at its widest point and project that distance down from the trigger. That measured-move target is what the screener draws, and the tested bearish policy takes its result there. The bullish ride rule does not apply to a bearish break.
The trade starts the moment price pushes through the line — an order set there in advance gets the first realistic price.
Bearish-leaning. Traders often read the narrowing climb as fading upward momentum, but that is an interpretation, not proof. The latest completed record above shows how often the tested downside rule followed through.
Some rising wedges break up instead. That cancels the bearish trade plan; it does not reveal anyone's motives. The safety exit below defines how the tested rule handles the failed case.
Completed rising-wedge trades from our nightly test — wins and losses, real dates, real results. Each links to that stock's live chart.
Wedges tilt; triangles don't. That one detail changes the lean of each pattern:
The mirror image: both lines slope down while the decline keeps shrinking. It has a bullish historical lean.
Also points up, but its ceiling is flat—the same area caps each push. In a rising wedge both lines rise; the flat ceiling is what makes the triangle its own bullish-leaning shape.
A tiny, fast squeeze that only counts right after a steep drop. A rising wedge is bigger, slower, and forms while the price is still climbing.
A falling wedge looks weak at first—the price is still sliding—but each push down is losing ground.
An ascending triangle forms when a stock keeps meeting the same ceiling while each dip stops a little higher.
A bear pennant is a short breather after a stock falls hard.
Educational content, not investment advice. Backtest statistics are historical results of a simulated strategy, refreshed nightly — they describe the past, not the next trade.